Twilight Of Shale
Net Zero targets beget a higher-priced oil future
In this report: Dallas fed snapshot, The bulls return, and commitment of traders analysis.
We have begun the twilight of shale. Several multibillion-dollar firms that have previously been U.S.-onshore-only are making investments in foreign countries and riskier (waterborne) geologies. The writing is on the wall. Consolidation continues; 50 percent fewer public companies than 10 years ago, and employees are being cut by the tens of thousands. The U.S. isn’t running out of oil, but she sure is running out of $60 per barrel oil. $100 per barrel? $150 per barrel?
Price likely must cover for less-than-optimal geology over time. One must wonder—in a country with over a million orphan wells—what happens to that (expensive) plug and abandon liability from the 200,000+ horizontal shale wells over time. We already see some companies that appear to have a business plan of a “bad bank.” Society will not treat us kindly unless we do our part to clean up after we are gone.- Dallas Fed respondent, Q3 2025 report.
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Dallas Fed takes
See also my March report- Dower Dallas.
Data were collected September 10–18, and 139 energy firms responded. Of the respondents, 93 were exploration and production firms and 46 were oilfield services firms.
Among E&P firms, the finding, and development costs index increased from 11.4 to 22.0. Also, the lease operating expenses index increased from 28.1 to 36.9.
When firms were asked-’’Has your firm delayed investment decisions in response to heightened uncertainty about the price of oil and/or the cost of producing oil?’’ 80% of respondents responded Yes-slightly to significantly.
