Tight n Risky
Traders lock in supplies while MEG (Middle East, Gulf) risk premium remains
In this report: Scramble for mainstream (non-sanctioned) oil, china builds more storage and risks remain elevated in Iran.
Key Stats. WTI -3.4% (-$2.24) for the week. Open $64.72 High $65.,53 Low $61.12 Close $63.5
Articles
In Focus: Gunboat Diplomacy & The Strait of Hormuz
US adds pressure on Iran after talks resume: Update
Vitol, Total Snap Up North Sea Oil at Fastest Pace on Record
Fears grow over Europe’s soaring dependence on US gas imports
Key Gulf Allies Say They Won’t Aid U.S. in an Iran Strike, Limiting Trump’s Options
Winter Storm Fern pushes oil generation to 44% amid Northeast gas constraints
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Glut barrels landing into onshore storage is accelerating at pace now. I was of the mind these stocks would land somewhat into US storage. This has not been the case in the week past, with landings increasing everywhere but.
Bullish factors are in spades. China is now building out more onshore storage capacity. +80mb of new state-run storage, alongside +24 mb of other capacity and incremental refining throughput. China remains THE market buyer, with India a close second. The latter of which has greatly reduced its landings of Russian sanctioned oil. There is currently $5 of Iranian risk premium in the market to boot and things havent even gotten ‘Hot’……yet…….
The signal some might take on as tightness of ‘mainstream’ oil last week, was Vitol and Total taking 17 of 20 tankers worth of Brent last week. This was the fastest pace of purchasing for them EVER RECORDED!
Europe is having a what can only be described as a German led brain fart for the past 18 months to maybe 5 years. Germany has swapped Putin’s gas for Trumps, with increased Gas loadings crossing the Atlantic monthly. This sorry state of affairs only seems to be spiralling further downward, looking through to 2030. Anyone know any German regional gas production plays that are paid in Euro?? NRT 0.00%↑ ??
Who is still buying Russian?
Iran risk
I covered a lot of this and the Straits of Hormuz in some depth in my report here. When we think of a closure of the Straits, there are many factors that have to be taken into account. History, logistics, pipelines, sea, ground and air warfare.
