Something brews
Market balance - quiet before a storm?
In this report: The Glut is what the market still fears, Russian catalysts and price chart analysis.
Key Stats.
WTI +0.18% for the week. Open $59.87 High $61.28 Low $58.12 Close $59.95
Articles
EAI -Short-Term Energy Outlook
OPEC shifts oil outlook to see small surplus in 2026
Russia temporarily suspends oil exports from Novorossiysk following Ukrainian attack
Exclusive: Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumes oil loadings after Ukrainian attack
‘‘In the CPS, oil and natural gas demand continue to grow to mid-century, although coal goes into decline before 2030. In the STEPS (stated policies scenarios), coal use peaks earlier than in the CPS (Current policy scenarios) and oil demand flattens by the end of the decade, but natural gas demand continues to grow into the 2030s, as a wave of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports brings downward pressure on prices.’’- IEA World Energy Outlook 2025.
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The market is strangely balanced, it seems - see TRADE section below. It feels as if there is something about to kick off that’s big. US invasion of Venezuela? China military action? Break in the stalemate of US/Russian talks? Who knows. All I know is that this market is coiling. We are not currently seeing COT data, so it is near impossible to interpret who is doing what. We should get C.F.T.C data next week.
The Glut IS REAL and is transferring now from sea to land storage. See below the EIA (US Energy Information agency-not top be confused with The IEA International Energy Agency). Have a look at inventory builds-which I covered the last 2 to 3 weeks. And the Conoco Phillips CEO said he doesn’t see a build? Honestly WTF? For a broader view of the oil market and into 2026, have a read of the summary report of the OPEC MOMR, IEA World Energy outlook 2025 and EIAs latest STEO.
‘‘We forecast that growing global oil production and the transition to the low point of seasonal demand over the winter will accelerate the growth in global oil inventories, causing crude oil prices to continue to fall in the coming months. We forecast that the Brent price will drop to an average of $54/b in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and will average $55/b in 2026.’’- EIA weekly report.
Commitment Of Traders Report
Still no updated release of data from the CFTC as of yet. So I will borrow from EIAs COT on ICE Brent and WTI.
