In this report: What would a US diesel ban look like, Europes move, what we should be looking at for alpha and Hormuz flows.
Last week. Brent +4.94% (+$4.81) Open $98.62 H $103.96 L $95.12 C $102.25
Articles
The Oil Report EIA Weekly report.
Wood Mackenzie: US considers diesel export restrictions
Yemen’s Houthis say they attacked Aramco facility in Riyadh with missiles, drones
Chinese refiners suspend October fuel exports
You Can’t Rate Hike a Chokepoint : Iran Speaker
An Open Letter to the Honorable People of the United States of America
US to loan up to 40 million barrels of oil from SPR, last batch from global deal
US to send third aircraft carrier towards Iran: US official to Al Jazeera
Carney fast-tracks massive West Coast oil pipeline, dubbed Pacific Link
Shifting Oil Market Positioning During the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
16 U.S. Trucking Companies File For Bankruptcy In Less Than A Month As Diesel Prices Soar
Dallas Fed survey: More than one in five firms plan to grow capex in 2027
Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as Ship Attacks Go Unreported for Days
Here is China’s Gold End-Game
Trump just soft-launched higher inflation as the new solution for rebalancing the $40 trillion U.S. national debt
Debt Destruction tool- Tim Duggan
View
Over the last three months, my readers have asked me if the US would bring in a crude or products ban. I stayed on the fence, giving it a 55% mental weighting three months ago. Now we are being whipped globally by skyrocketing diesel prices, and the question has moved into the White House.
A US diesel ban is currently being discussed in the corridors of Washington, with US Energy Sec Wright saying it is almost a certainty. This week the US told France and Germany to release their strategic diesel reserves or face a ban. On Friday, Macron said stocks will be released over four months and the G7 confirmed up to 100 mb: 50 mb of diesel, which is 417 kb/d, and 50 mb of crude. 20-day diesel frontload. 4.94Wright had asked for 120 mb of diesel over six months.
On Wednesday last ahead of the EUs actions, Russia extended their diesel export ban to the end of October. Chinese refiners also suspended exports of oil products to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice. On the same day, the Indian MRPL refinery got hit, knocking out 5.6% of the refinery capacity. As discussed over the last 2 months, this crisis is not a crude story, it’s a products and refinery story. There is simply not enough refinery capacity that is working or in the right geographical area to survive the Iranian war.
So what would happen if there was a US diesel export ban?