OPEC Schmopec
Hike much softer than expected.
In this report: Commitment Of Traders analysis and trade hypos, OPEC+ hike but very softly, Russian refineries under attack.
Note on Commitment Of Traders data:
Please be mindful that there may be other armchair analysts on C.O.T analysis and their data is not correct. If you just go to the CFTC website today and download the .xls file, this data will only go back to 2022. It will not encompass data beyond that on any market. This is extremely dangerous, and most of these armchair analysts are not even aware of this.
We have invested over 100 hours in developing our tool, implemented machine learning, and have merged several databases to give us full historical data on our product views.
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Macro
OPEC+ Met Sunday by telephone and Sunday to decide on raising production and bringing back 1.66mln bpd of cuts that were to hold in place to end of 2026. Read more in ‘Trade’ section below. The expectation was a full amount would be put back on supply, however the reality is only an introduction is 137k bpd. This would allow them to unwind the 1.66mln bpd over the next 12 months. So the selling may be overdone! Sell the rumour, buy the fact.
The 2nd and 3rd order consequences of this are interesting.
