Narratives
What’s Moving the Tape
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In this report
No tariff relief for oil. OPEC+ ramps rhetoric, but barrels lag. Trump dangles an Iran deal. Markets unwind tariff panic as contango sets the tone. U.S. rigs fall, Canadian tanks fill and a note on Gas.
Narratives
Here are the current oil narratives that play. They are all like instruments in an song, they get louder, get softer, but one can suddenly take control of the melody. Right now, China tariffs is playing lead followed closely by Iranian talks.
China not currently interested in buying US crude or LNG even at reduced rates.
Iranian nuclear deal talks pose a positive or negative supply shock with 1.7mbpd currently restrained by sanctions.
U.S. is it slowing and at what rate?
OPEC+ announced large supply additions despite weak demand
Canadian crude is building in tanks—sign of oversupply.
Trump hinted Thursday at a nuclear deal with Iran, implying 1.7M bpd could return.
Iranian positivity on the deal then unwound from comments over Reuters reporting via the Squak.
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OPEC+ has just thrown a bombshell to the oil market,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy A/S, who previously worked at the OPEC secretariat. “With this move Saudi Arabia is seeking to punish lack of compliance particularly from Kazakhstan but also ingratiate with President Trump’s push for lower oil prices.”- Bloomberg
Articles
Iran has ‘sort of’ agreed deal on nuclear programme, says Donald Trump
Europe to baptize colossal carbon ship to bury 400,000 tons of CO2 undersea yearly
OPEC+ Agrees Another Supply Surge in June to Deepen Oil Rout
OPEC Monthly Market Report
Macro
From the OPEC MMR (Monthly Market Report)
