Let's TACO
Chickening out as a strategy & how Iran does not mess about
To ‘TACO’, meaning ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’. It is an effective strategy we are all becoming very used to now. Also referred to formally by Chinas Mao Zedong in 1946 as the ‘Paper Tiger’. Bring things to the brink, then take the pressure off at the very last minute to avoid the worst. It has worked in the world of global trade tariffs but is now failing with Iran. Why?
Lets TACO strategy something
Step 1: You start with something you want.
You have leverage as a large player in the ecosystem of this negotiation. You threaten to go to maximum pain leverage if you don’t get what you want. You attach a critically short timeline in order to cause a shock. You presume your counterpart, who is politically inclined (talk not action), remains silent, digests the proposal looking for internal consensus that is difficult to achieve at the best of times. The more bureaucratic the counterpart, the better for you. The less bureaucratic the counterpart, the more you need to paint them as a bad, violent, evil, abusive actor. This gains public consensus that ‘something must be done anyway’.
Step 2. You use the critically short timeline.
You do not take any communications from your counterpart. You deploy time as your tool here. You want this to go to the wire-after all doom is coming, 100% new tariffs, 200% new tariffs, halting trade etc. When it is hours away from the set deadline, you take a phone call, you call off the actions set for the deadline and announce your counterpart if at the table.
The counterpart, being democratic, bureaucratic, political, bows to full or partial demands as they cannot work effectively within the critical timelines. At best, your counterpart agrees to full terms, full concession only to backpedal later or just not follow through. Either way, you claim victory. The proof of which will not be seen for time to come. You brought the horse to the water and you made it drink…for now…..
For example-The US/EU Gas trade deal.
Article: U.S. LNG lobbying aimed at weakening EU methane rules
How to avoid being TACOed
Well, that did not work with Iran. Trump announced there was a negotiation going on, when there was categorically not. There was a 48hr timeline OR ELSE he would destroy their national power grid. Trump creating a negotiation narrative with an attached timeline. Then Iran shut that down.
The TACO requires five conditions. Iran violated all of them.
Condition 1: Your counterpart must be bureaucratic and slow to respond. Iran isn’t bureaucratic. Under wartime, decision-making collapsed to the IRGC and the Supreme National Security Council. There’s no parliamentary debate, no coalition to hold together, no internal consensus problem. One voice says “no.” Done. The TACO works against the EU, against Congress, against trade blocs that need 27 members to agree on lunch. It doesn’t work against a military hierarchy that responds fast.
TAKEAWAY: Be rapidly decisive
Condition 2: Your counterpart must care about the narrative. Iran doesn’t need to control a single headline. They control a 21-nautical-mile-wide strait and 20% of the globes oil and LNG transit. While Trump is posting on Truth Social about “productive conversations,” Iran’s military spokesman went on state TV and said: “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?” They don’t need PR. They have a choke point and all the cards. Unlike this guy.
TAKEAWAY: Shutdown false narratives publicly and immediately.
Condition 3: The bluff must be cheap to maintain. This is where it shattered. Tariff TACOs cost nothing to hold - you just don’t sign a piece of paper. This TACO has the 82nd Airborne deployed, 1 Aircraft carrier group, 300 American soldiers injured, 15 dead, Bushehr hit twice, 8 mb/d of global supply offline, Brent above $106, and UBS gating funds. The cost of maintaining the pressure position is destroying the thing you’re trying to protect.
TAKEAWAY: Don’t make a threat you are not absolutely 100% willing to go through with regardless of the outcome.
Condition 4: The deadline must create panic in your counterpart. Iran extended every deadline Trump set. The 48-hour ultimatum came and went. The 5-day postponement came and went. Now it’s pushed to April 6. Each extension doesn’t show patience - it’s just plain embarrassing. Iran knows that every day the strait stays closed, the structural damage deepens and Trump’s domestic position weakens exponentially.
TAKEAWAY: Do not play the game on your counterpart’s pitch.
Condition 5: You must be able to claim victory and move on. Vance is already on the phone to Netanyahu, saying the war was “sold as easy.” The blame game has started before any resolution exists. You can’t claim victory when your own VP is publicly questioning the premise. Every time the US attempts an exit narrative, they fail.
TAKEAWAY: Retain ownership of what defines victory.
In summary. Iran broke the TACO by refusing to be the counterpart the US and Israel requires. They’re not bureaucratic, they aren't concerned about optics, and they hold the one asset that makes the bluff pricier for Trump every single day it continues. The TACO strategy requires your counterpart to blink. Iran just needs to wait.
There will be no TACO. The Dead Hand runs the Missile Robot. And neither of them negotiate.
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