Iranian next leadership
Longevity of instability will pivot on Iranian succession.
This is a supplemental report to serve the special Iranian report.
Succession: The Internal Power Question
The speed of consolidation matters:
Rapid institutional succession = escalation stabilises.
Factional fragmentation = maritime leverage escalates.
Markets will price regime coherence before they price ideology. Under Article 111, an interim leadership council is active. The assembly of Experts must appoint a permanent Supreme Leader. There are three realistic pathways:
Security Consolidation Model – Low-profile cleric aligned with IRGC (most probable).
Collective Leadership / Council Model – Temporary power-sharing.
Symbolic Legitimacy Model – Khomeini lineage revival (least likely under current alignment).
Reported preferred successors include:
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i. Probability: Moderate–Low
Current head of the judiciary. Long record in intelligence and prosecution. Close to hardline clerical networks. Loyal regime insider. Strong on repression credentials. Lacks broad religious stature required for Supreme Leader. Not viewed as a charismatic or consensus figure. He is a system enforcer, not a system architect.
Seyyed Ali Asghar Hijazi. Probability: Moderate–High
Deputy chief of staff to the Supreme Leader. Oversees security and intelligence liaison. Deep ties to the IRGC. Operates inside the Supreme Leader’s office. Embedded within security architecture. Low public visibility, high institutional power. If succession becomes a wartime consolidation event, someone like Hijazi fits: loyal, opaque, security-aligned.
Hassan Khomeini. Probability: Low
Grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini. Clerical legitimacy through lineage. Considered more reform-leaning. Strong symbolic value. Likely resisted by hardliners and IRGC. Previously blocked from Assembly of Experts candidacy.
Ali Ardashir Larijani. Probability: Low–Moderate
Former Parliament Speaker. Pragmatic conservative. Reportedly coordinating wartime governance. Crisis manager. Elite insider with cross-faction ties. Not ideologically dominant enough for Supreme Leader role. More likely a transitional political coordinator than the ultimate Leader.
The IRGC chain of command has activated succession backups. Ali Ardashir Larijani is reportedly coordinating wartime governance.
Leadership
The most structurally plausible successor is Seyyed Ali Asghar Hijazi or another security-state insider aligned with the IRGC. Hassan Khomeini is symbolically strong but politically constrained. Mohseni-Eje’i is regime-loyal, but not a natural Supreme Leader candidate. Ali Larijani is a stabilizer, not a likely long-term Leader. Ultimately, the IRGC’s position will be decisive.
Fun tit bit- I was in Beirut for new years 2019/20 when Qassem Soleimani was assassinated there. It was a strange time punctuated by drinking at a bar in the Sodeco district on NYE, then suddenly about 100 soldiers turn up and surrounded the bar because a diplomat’s son wanted to attend the same bar.
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