Iran again

Maximum pressure

In this report: Fresh Iranian sanctions, C.O.T on Brent, Saudi stuck in the middle and Chinas Tea Pots

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Trump aka Mr. T is embarking a fresh round of sanctions and actions on Iran. WTI moved $2.5 dollars up when this executive action was released Tuesday last.

"The Secretary of State shall... implement a robust and continual campaign, in coordination with the Secretary of the Treasury and other relevant executive departments or agencies (agencies), to drive Iran’s export of oil to zero, including exports of Iranian crude to the People’s Republic of China."

2 days later, the market took out those lows with no walk-back of the memorandum or statements. Similar to the pricing out of any middle eastern oil supply risks over the last 2 years, the market priced out the event pretty quickly with no material change.

I held an idea over the last 3 weeks that the market needed to trade YPVAH $70.59 to complete the auction and that's exactly what it did last Thursday, with $70.60 as the low on Friday. The big questions now. Will it hold?

Source: Vortexa

PADD3 onshore inventories are quite far below their 2019-2024 range, where they should be about 10mil+ higher. This is indicating shortage of crude stock for refiners who will want to come back to market any day now. It reads as bullish to me. Lets see API inventories say Tuesday and Department of Energy on Wednesday 15:30 GMT. This could cause for the market to do very little Monday and Tuesday.