Hold my beer 1973!
The worst energy shock in history isn't coming. It's here.
In this report: Hormuz traffic green shoots, Primorsk, Diesel at $200, 1973 comparison by numbers and Spec shorts/Commercials/spreading C.O.T drama
Key Stats. WTI +10.75% (+$10.88) for the week. Open $102.60 High $113.97 Low $96.50 Close $112.06
Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi says “No negotiation has taken place. The reports about that are inaccurate. The trust level is at zero”
This pattern reinforces the view that Hormuz has not reopened in any meaningful commercial sense. Instead, it is beginning to function as a controlled corridor where access is selective, conditional and heavily influenced by geopolitics. For shipowners and charterers, that represents a profound shift in how one of the world’s most important shipping lanes operates. - Paul Morgan writing in Gcaptain.com April 5th 2026.
Articles
Controlled Passage: First Ships Edge Through Hormuz as Crisis Redefines Global Shipping
Passage via Strait of Hormuz will never be the same, especially for US and Israel — IRGC
Prolonged war in Iran could tip the global economy into recession
Amazon to add 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for sellers as Iran war drives up energy prices
Oil Spikes As Trump Vows To Hit Iran “Extremely Hard Over Next 2-3 Weeks”, Threatens To Send It “Back To The Stone Ages”
Has conflict in the Middle East changed the Fed’s policy outlook?
Why High Crude Prices May Persist as Global Supply Guardrails Erode
How the Iran war could change energy markets
Africa eyes its own ‘Strait of Hormuz’ as €20 billion Spain–Morocco corridor gains traction amid global choke point risks
French and Japanese-Owned Ships Make First Hormuz Crossings
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Passage in the straits is showing the tiny early signs of a softening. What this is pointing to is not by any means a resolution to the situation, but signs that further incremental shipments are getting through. We have seen some French and Japanese vessels get through, but it is unclear if these are fully laden with oil.
This is by far nowhere near normalisation, but it is enough for the market to price out some part of the risk premium seen in the closing out of trade last Thursday.
As I mentioned in a video post here last week, we have now crossed into an extreme supply situation. The simple reason for this - the Iran war is stepping up a gear, as Trump promised mid-week he will bring Iran ‘‘back to the stone ages’’.
The damage already inflicted on regional oil & gas infrastructure has a long tail. We will not be able to undo the damage for some time, with industry experts saying that a return to pre-war state would take at least 2 years for production. That tail effect impact is already kicking in around the world…..and this is just the start. While there may or may not be normalisation to come on shipping through the straits, it will not come for any countries associated with US or Israeli agendas.
European diesel futures breached $200/barrel, highest since 2022
Asda in the UK warned it was already facing fuel shortages at its stations
