Crude Reality
Flat production & flat stores
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In this report: U.S crude stats, Indian slowdown on petroleum, Macro, Commitment of traders report, Price macro drivers, Trade charts.
‘‘When you get below the cost of supply, you can’t ‘drill, baby, drill’, That shuts you down’’ Harold Hamm March 14th 2025.
New to the oil report. The weekly EIA reports summary stats. Ill add this each week with a short analysis for Trader subs.
We have rolled to K contract on volume.
Summary: Crude stocks in The U.S are low on the 5year range with production flat. Investments are sidelined awaiting further clarity on the U.S eonomic outlook and tail effects of tariffs. Opec+ supply and a weakening U.S economy which is adapting to ‘The New World’ will keep supplies ample as demand remains constant to building, where the building demand is seen in the petrochemical space by contract to the transportation space.
Weekly U.S. Crude Oil & Petroleum Summary (Week Ending March 7, 2025)
Crude Oil & Refining
Crude Oil Refinery Inputs: 15.7 million bpd (+321,000 bpd from last week)
Refinery Utilization: 86.5%
Gasoline Production: 9.6 million bpd (↓ from last week)
Distillate Fuel Production: 4.5 million bpd (↓ from last week)
Imports
Crude Oil Imports: 5.5 million bpd (-343,000 bpd from last week)
4-Week Avg. Crude Imports: 5.8 million bpd (-10.6% YoY)
Gasoline Imports: 578,000 bpd
Distillate Fuel Imports: 249,000 bpd
Inventories
Crude Oil: 435.2 million barrels (+1.4M barrels) → 5% below 5-year avg.
Gasoline: -5.7 million barrels → 1% above 5-year avg.
Distillate Fuel: -1.6 million barrels → 5% below 5-year avg.
Propane/Propylene: -3.4 million barrels → 10% below 5-year avg.
Total Petroleum Inventories: -6.0 million barrels
Demand (Product Supplied – 4-Week Avg.)
Total Products Supplied: 20.7 million bpd (+3.9% YoY)
Gasoline: 8.7 million bpd (+0.1% YoY)
Distillate Fuel: 4.1 million bpd (+9.5% YoY)
Articles
Trump launches large-scale strikes on Yemen's Houthis-more below
How Natural Gas Became America’s Most Important Export
Global oil supply growth is outstripping demand
Indian passes regulation for expanding oil & gas exploration
Macro
It is my belief that natural gas is THE transition fuel. It is abundant and easily acquired. To date, it has been a financial cherry-on-top by-product of drilling for oil. I believe that more pure-play natural gas wells will come online throughout this year and in the years to come, while crude plays will take a back seat. We have already seen rig counts drop over the last 12 months in North America, while better technology allows for higher-efficiency extraction of DUCs (drilled but uncompleted wells) and workover wells. It is now famously not on the table for the industry to “drill, baby, drill,” as covered in reports here last year and having been much discussed last week at CERA week hosted by the Daniel Yergen.
The oil market remains under pressure as supply growth continues to outpace demand. Prices have retreated significantly in the second half of 2024, which is expected to curb drilling and production growth in 2025. Futures crude markets are pricing in a slowdown across major economies, with sluggish petroleum consumption further dampening sentiment.
A notable factor contributing to price weakness is India’s declining petroleum consumption, which has lost momentum since late 2024. As the fastest-growing source of oil demand, India’s stagnation has added downward pressure on crude prices.
On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+
