BREAKING- MOU agreed
All done bar the shouting
This is a note sent out earlier this morning at 4am. Full report to follow later today.
I wanted to get out to all readers as I reconfigure the report that requires some updates. For more trade detail, paid subs can go to our discord, which will update throughout the day.
BREAKING - June 15, 2026 | 04:00 LONDON.
At 22:30 last night, President Trump posted that the deal with Iran is complete. He authorised toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and immediate removal of the US naval blockade. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts. Iran’s National Security Council confirmed an MOU with signing scheduled for June 19th in Switzerland. Sixty days of final deal negotiations to follow.
The strait is opening.
Before you price in the all-clear, here is what a signed MOU does not fix.
Nearly one billion barrels of cumulative Gulf production have been lost since February 28th. That oil does not come back in a week.
Kpler estimates five months minimum to restore pre-war production levels even under the most optimistic restart scenario. ADNOC’s CEO put mid-2027 as the realistic timeline for full normalisation.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan sustained damage to two of fourteen LNG trains. Multi-year repair. An MOU does not accelerate that.
Shipper confidence does not return because a document was signed. War risk insurance premiums do not reprice overnight. The VLCC fleet that has been sitting idle off the Gulf of Oman waiting for this moment will move - but the cargo pipeline behind it takes months to rebuild.
The bypass infrastructure that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq have been building at emergency pace does not stop because the strait is open. The calculus that drove those decisions - that Hormuz is permanently unreliable - has been validated, not reversed.
The toll-gate precedent is set. Iran demonstrated that the strait can be closed. That option value does not disappear with an MOU.
This is not over. It is entering its second phase.
A full analysis of what the deal does and does not fix - and what it means for the structural energy trade - publishes this week in The Oil Report.