Balanced to down
Oil largely balanced despite OPEC+ actions
UPDATE SINCE PUBLICATION: Energy supply risks have come to the front based on Trump comments on both Russia and Iran. This is why we use the best News service for trading. Thanks NewSquak
The report update is that this is pressing upwardly on oil prices. Nothing seen as of yet on Gas. Please find an added and updated daily bar and yearly vwap analysis in trade section below. In future, these updates will only be available to premium subscribers. thank you.
The Liberation Day chaos and tariff antics have harmed the domestic energy industry. Drill, baby, drill will not happen with this level of volatility. Companies will continue to lay down rigs and frack spreads.- Dallas Fed survey Q2 2025 Respondent comment.
In this report:
Global crude inventories (ex-China) fell by 50mb since early June, exposing the tightness masked by Chinese stockpiling.
U.S. shale oil has peaked: data confirms November 2024 was the high-water mark, with 2025 output likely in decline.
OPEC+ has front-loaded its production hikes, but real supply additions remain muted due to non-compliance and geopolitical bottlenecks.
Articles
IEA Oil Market Report - July 2025
IEA Oil 2025- Analysis & forecast to 2030
Is nuclear power set for a revival?
The state of AI: How organizations are rewiring to capture value
OPEC continue raising production further +548k bpd in August
Oilfield-Contractor Profits Falling on Drilling Slowdown-Dallas Fed survey Q2 2025
Views
Despite bearish sentiment, oil fundamentals are tightening beneath the surface. Record. U.S. shale productivity is waning. OECD inventories are at their lowest in 20 years (ex-China), and “missing barrels” still persist.
The prevailing market psychology has skipped over uncertainty and moved directly into despair—pricing in a collapse that fundamentals don't confirm. I believe this sets the stage for a medium term, sharp upside surprise in oil prices as the year unfolds. In the near term, price is technically rotational/auction down on the quarterly picture as detailed in trade charts below. This view was upheld distinctly by trade on Thursday and Friday last.
Macro
Detailed statistics from EIA highlight that we are in a new phase of oil demand shifts. The front-runners for oil demand via transportation are now India, South and Central America, Africa and The Middle East. With Africa set to dominate in percentile demand gains through to 2030.
